Israel: Iran Will Have U.S.-Range Missile in 2-3 Years

Israel believes that within 2-3 years Iran will have intercontinental missiles able to hit the United States. Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz’s assessment, in an interview with CNBC, was in line with an unclassified U.S. Defense Department report in 2010 that estimated Iran may be able to build a U.S.-range missile by 2015.
“They (the Iranians) are working now and investing a lot of billions of dollars in order to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles,” said Steinitz. “And we estimate that in two to three years they will have the first intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the east coast of America. So their aim is to put a direct nuclear ballistic threat…to Europe and to the United States.”
Three weeks ago, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon said Iran had been working on developing a missile capable of striking the U.S. at a military base rocked by an explosion in November. Yaalon said the base was a research and development facility where Iran was preparing to develop a missile with a range of 10,000 km (6,000 miles). (Reuters)

What Next on Syria?

The Assad regime is vicious and repressive. It has no legitimacy and holds on to power by brute force alone. It is also Iran’s only Arab ally, the arms supplier to Hizbullah, and an enemy of the U.S. that worked hard to send jihadis to Iraq to kill Americans. So the fall of the regime should be an American policy goal, and in this we will have considerable Arab and European support. The likely Sunni-led replacement will not have the close relationship with Iran and Hizbullah that the Assad clique has established.
The Free Syrian Army, which began with little more than press releases, is now a force in the thousands and we should be helping arm and fund it. Why? Because the real questions in Syria now are who will win and how long will this take. We ought to find an Assad victory (or perhaps one should say an Assad, Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and Hizbullah victory) unacceptable. The writer is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at CFR.

(Elliott Abrams – Council on Foreign Relations)
See also Indirect Intervention in Syria – Jeffrey White
Since direct international military intervention in Syria has been ruled out, indirect intervention – the provision of military and political assistance to the regime’s opponents – offers an alternative option that could yield success with less risk and cost.
The U.S. and others could provide weapons, training and intelligence to resistance fighters, help build enhanced capabilities for sabotage operations, and support a campaign of political warfare. Such a campaign could include information and psychological operations directed at the regime, the jamming of Syrian government communications, and the undermining of loyalties to the regime through financial or personal security inducements (e.g., exemption from prosecution, visas, and offers of asylum). The writer, a former senior intelligence officer, is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Friendship Under Fire

It is no secret that Netanyahu and Obama have never been close, but now is the time for the two leaders to find common ground over the Iranian nuclear issue. The U.S. and Israel clearly differ in where their red lines lie. The U.S. has put the focus on Iran actually gaining a nuclear weapon, while Israel – more vulnerable to Iranian missiles due to its geographic proximity – views the threshold as the Iranian regime’s acquisition of enough low-enriched uranium to build a bomb, pending a political decision to convert it to weapons-grade fuel.
The other set of differences has to do with how long the U.S. and Israel are willing to wait before judging the international sanctions of Iran to be a success or failure. Israeli officials fear they might not have the time to wait and see whether the sanctions halt Iran’s nuclear program peacefully.
Israeli considerations of a strike are rooted not in their ethos of self-reliance, but in the fear that the U.S. will ultimately fail to strike, even if sanctions fail. The U.S. and Israel need to come to a more precise understanding of U.S. thresholds for the Iranian nuclear program and American responses should they be breached, as well as an agreement on a timetable for giving up on sanctions. The writer is the Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

(David Makovsky – Foreign Policy)

Support for Israel in U.S. Near All-Time High

    A Gallup Poll released on Feb. 16 asked Americans if they felt favorably or unfavorably toward several countries. The results for Middle Eastern countries were:
Israel: 71% favorable, 24% unfavorable; Egypt: 47-47; Saudi Arabia: 42-54; Libya: 25-66; Iraq: 24-72; Palestinian Authority: 19-72; Syria: 17-72; Iran: 10-87.
Israel’s “very favorable” rating (29%) was the highest in the past 23 years, while its overall favorable rating was the highest since 1991 (when it was 79% just after the First Gulf War).

(Gallup)

Caught on Camera: Palestinian Hurls Brick at Israeli Woman Motorist

    Zehava Weiss, a teacher, was on her way home to Karmei Tzur in the West Bank on Tuesday when she became the target of a rock salvo that smashed her windshield.
An AFP photographer standing nearby captured the instance when a Palestinian hurled a boulder at her car.
368 Palestinians were arrested in 2011 for throwing rocks, and 38 were arrested for hurling firebombs.
Over 100 Palestinians were arrested for similar attacks in January and February of 2012.

(Yair Altman  – Ynet News)

Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Leader: Threats to Cut U.S. Aid Could Imperil Peace Deal with Israel

Mohammed Morsi, the leader of the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest party, on Thursday rejected U.S. threats to cut aid over a dispute about nonprofit groups operating in the country, saying they are out of line and could imperil the peace deal with Israel. Morsi said the annual U.S. aid is part of its commitment to Egypt’s 1979 treaty with Israel and should not be at risk because of the dispute over the nonprofit groups. “Brandishing threats to stop this aid is out of place. Otherwise, the peace deal would be reconsidered or it could flounder,” he said.
The Brotherhood’s deputy chairman, Khairat el-Shater, told Al-Jazeera that U.S. aid should not be conditional and should continue to flow as “compensation” for years of supporting Mubarak’s autocratic regime. (AP-Washington Post)

Senators Unite on Pressuring Iran


Uniting in response to a string of aggressive gestures from Iran, a bipartisan group of 32 U.S. senators introduced a resolution Thursday endorsing continued economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran as it seeks to gain nuclear capability. “You have only two choices: peacefully negotiate to end your nuclear weapons program, or expect a military strike to disable that program,” said Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.), chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. The senators said that President Obama would receive bipartisan support should he decide that a military strike was necessary. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said, “The best way for Iran to survive is to abandon nuclear weapon ambitions and become a productive member of the family of nations.”  (Emmarie HuettemanNew York Times)

Obama Administration to Seek Waiver on UNESCO Funding Ban

The Obama administration formally announced its intention to ask Congress to waive a ban on funding UNESCO over its recognition of Palestinian statehood. “The Department of State intends to work with Congress to seek legislation that would provide authority to waive restrictions on paying the U.S. assessed contributions to UNESCO,” says a footnote in the budget that the White House submitted to Congress this month. On Wednesday, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), the chairwoman of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, said she plans to oppose such a waiver.
U.S. funding for UNESCO was stopped late last year because of laws banning U.S. funding of any international organization that recognizes Palestinian statehood in the absence of a peace agreement with Israel. “Any effort to walk back this funding cutoff will pave the way for the Palestinian leadership’s unilateral statehood scheme to drive on, and sends a disastrous message that the U.S. will fund UN bodies no matter what irresponsible decisions they make,” she said. (Ron Kampeas - JTA)

On Iran, a Stark Choice

Israel’s leaders, reflecting Israeli public opinion, take very seriously Iran’s oft-repeated threat to create a second Holocaust, to wipe the Jewish state – “the Zionist entity” or “Zionist regime,” as the Iranians call it – off the map. They take equally seriously Iran’s nuclear program, which the international community, after years of denial or at least skepticism, now accepts is geared to the production of nuclear weaponry. Israelis, at least those who don’t bury their heads in the sand, believe that if the Iranians get nuclear weapons they will, in the end, use them – or at a minimum, cannot be relied on not to use them – and that Israel’s very existence is at stake.
The choice is clear and stark. Either Iran, led by fanatical, brutal and millenarian leaders, will get the bomb, or it will be prevented from doing so by military assault on its nuclear installations, by America or Israel. If the Americans, who have the capability to do a thorough job, don’t do it – and they don’t seem to have the stomach for it after Iraq and Afghanistan – then the Israelis, with their more limited capabilities, will have to.
How Washington, which has repeatedly and more or less publicly vetoed the idea, would react to an Israeli strike deeply worries policymakers in Jerusalem. But it worries them far less than a nuclear-weaponized Iran. An Israeli or American attack on Iran would likely rile much of the Muslim world, causing wide-ranging political fallout. But the consequences of nuclear bombs hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa – effectively destroying Israel, a very small country – are even more dire. (Benny MorrisLos Angeles Times)